Thursday, June 26, 2008

Canadian Housing Market is Cooling

According to Toronto Dominions recent economic report, after a long run of rapidly-rising prices, the Canadian housing market has cooled to the point that it is no longer a sellers' market. “The long-awaited end of the Canadian housing boom has occurred, reflecting more moderate demand and increased supply of properties for sale.”

“The year-over-year price growth for existing homes in Canada's major markets fell to only 1.1 per cent in May, down from 8.6 per cent just four months earlier,” the TD economists wrote.
“The trend has been broadly based, but is has been particularly sharp in some of the markets that had experienced the most dramatic price growth. Calgary and Edmonton home prices in April and May fell to below year-earlier levels.”

The TD economists said they had expected the slowdown to occur before now, but “housing remained stronger for longer than we had anticipated, largely due to increased affordability through new financing options, such as no money down or extended amortization.”

Regional economic strength related to the commodity boom also helped to fuel “unsustainably elevated home price growth in the west,” they wrote.

Last month, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that resale home listings across Canada rose by 17.7 per cent in April from a year earlier – pushing the number of home listings to the highest level on record.

“Most of Canada's major housing markets have moved out of sellers' territory to more balanced markets.”

However, the Canadian housing market remains fundamentally strong, unlike the U.S. market, where the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that median home prices continued to fall. The median price of an existing U.S. home sold in May was $208,600 (U.S), down 6.3 per cent from a year earlier – fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis.
In Canada, the TD economists forecast an average existing home price of $313,300 (Canadian) in 2008, up 2 per cent from last year's average.

Canadians, the TD economists said, are “cashing in, not foreclosing.

“... It should be stressed that the rise in listings does not reflect homeowners of principal dwellings desperate to sell, and this is the dominant difference between the Canadian and U.S. experience,” they wrote in their report, Canada's Housing Boom Comes to an End.

“Indeed, the U.S. has been characterized by an abnormal rise in delinquencies and foreclosures or large negative equity positions. In Canada, speculators may be quickly dumping properties on the market to get out while the times are good, but individuals that have a principal dwelling are not under financial duress.

“Canadian consumers are nowhere nearly as leveraged through their home equity as American consumers are.”

Throughout the rest of this year and 2009, most regional housing markets in Canada “will see low to mid single-digit gains, but Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to post double-digit gains in the near term, followed by a significant cooling in 2009 – with the risk of a mild price correction in the major cities that have recently experienced extraordinary price growth,” the TD economists said.

“Alberta will have further weakness in the near term, as Calgary and Edmonton will likely see prices continue to fall for another three or four quarters, dropping 8 per cent to 10 per cent from their peak, after which prices should stabilize and start rising at a low single-digit pace.”

Warmly,
Mary Wozny

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

US Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve, navigating treacherous economic waters, decided on Wednesday to leave a key interest rate unchanged, bringing an end to a string of consecutive rate cuts. The decision to leave rates unchanged had been widely expected by financial markets.The central bank announced that it was keeping the federal funds rate, the interest rate that banks charge each other, at 2 per cent, marking the first time in 10 months that the central bank has failed to reduce interest rates at one of its regular meetings.

The Fed is confronted with the twin perils of a possible recession and rising inflation pressures, stemming from this year's surge in oil and food prices.

In a brief statement explaining the decision, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues cited both the threats to growth and rising inflation pressures as problems confronting the economy at the moment. The statement said that the downside risks to growth “appear to have diminished somewhat” while adding that “the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased.

Because of the Fed's decision, short-term borrowing costs on millions of consumer and business loans tied to banks' prime lending rate will remain unchanged. The prime rate is currently at 5 per cent, its lowest level since late 2004.

Investors are split about the Fed's actions for the rest of the year. Some analysts believe the Fed could start raising rates, possibly as soon as the next meeting in August because of concerns about inflation. Other economists argue that the weak economy and rising unemployment will keep the Fed on the sidelines until at least after the November elections.

While saying that the upside risks to inflation have increased, the central bank repeated its forecast that it expected “inflation to moderate later this year and next year.”

The opposing forces of weak growth and recession put the central bank in a bind. Its main policy tool — changes in interest rates — can only address one of those problems at a time. The Fed can cut interest rates to spur consumer and business spending and economic growth or it can raise interest rates to slow spending and growth and ease inflation pressures.

The Bush administration is hoping that the government's $168-billion (U.S.) economic stimulus program, which is sending rebate payments to 130 million households, will help dissolve some of the gloom and bolster consumer spending in the months ahead.

Other analysts, however, said they believed Mr.Bernanke wanted to send out a strong anti-inflation warning, especially since it was coupled with a comment in an earlier speech about the Fed chief's concerns that the weak U.S. dollar was adding to U.S. inflation problems. The remarks taken together had the impact of bolstering the dollar, which had been tumbling.
The Fed is making an effort to convince the markets that the central bank is serious about fighting inflation without having to start raising interest rates at a time when the economy remains very weak.

The last thing the central bank wants is a repeat of the 1970s, when successive oil price shocks did trigger a wage-price spiral that sent inflation soaring and was only subdued when the Fed under Paul Volcker pushed interest rates to levels not seen since the Civil War.

Rocky times are ahead and investors must use prudence and care to successfully navigate through them.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Modest Increase Foreseen for Mortgage Rates

As reported in the Globe and Mail, Canadians should be prepared for a modest hike in mortgage rates as the Bank of Canada turns its attention away from stimulating the economy and toward curbing inflation.

This prospect, combined with other rising costs, will likely cause more homeowners to opt for the security of locking in their mortgages.

That will be the case even though, for now, variable rates are still at least a percentage point cheaper.

The surprise decision last week by the central bank to freeze rather than cut its key lending rate hasn't hit mortgage rates yet.

However, fixed-rate mortgages, which move in tandem with long-term bond yields, should creep up in the next six months as the bond market is hit by concerns about the rising cost of living, said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.

“The No. 1 enemy of the bond market and long-term rates is inflation,” Mr. Tal said. Variable-rate mortgages are tied to the prime rate set by the banks for their best customers. It fluctuates with the Bank of Canada's key lending rate, and Mr. Tal said he expects the central bank will raise rates next year as it moves to curb inflation.

Mortgage rates will likely start heading up in the near term, although the increase should be a moderate quarter to half a percentage point, said Gerald Soloway, chief executive officer of Home Capital Group Inc., which provides alternative mortgages through its principal subsidiary, Home Trust Co.

“I don't think it will be dramatic. I think there will be a modest increase,” Mr. Soloway said. The current volatility in the economy reinforces his view that the bulk of his company's clients, including people on fixed incomes or on a tight budget, should lock in for the longer term, Mr. Soloway said.

“I really don't think that the average homeowner is equipped to speculate on interest rates. I think fixed is a much better option for people getting a mortgage today. Why not have the certainty and protect the investment in your house?”

With both fixed and floating rates expected to rise, CIBC's Mr. Tal, a long-term proponent of variable mortgages, said he now sees a window of opportunity for homeowners to lock in for the next five years.

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Warmly,

Mary Wozny